Fall To Come Roarin' In

Was checking out the models for next week's system and think Fall certainly has the chance to come in like a lion for a few folks across the states.

Latest GFS hinting at an open system on Monday before closing off the low Tuesday with a chance at some severe weather across areas of central Oklahoma into southern Kansas. The 500mb flow doesn't race over the higher CAPE areas progged by the model, but the faster SW flow does clip northwest Oklahoma just behind nearly 3000J/kg sitting over central Oklahoma. SPC's morning outlook for the 4-8 has a cold front event highlighted east of this area and it this latest run of the GFS were to hold, I would think the best potential for chasable weather would sit in northwest Oklahoma IF we can generate some better CAPE in that area to match up with the progged flow. Moisture seems to be the issue as dewpoints are forecasted in the mid 40s across the panhandles to mid 60s along and east of I-35. Again, matching up the upper flow with the surface features will be key to make this event worthy of the trip.

The models do not move the system much, but as it closes, the speeds increase across the region, but the front blasting out all the CAPE for Tuesday. With that said, it would be a one-day shot for this if it were to verify.

With that, I am keeping tabs on the situation and will see how the WRF/NAM/ETA starts to handle it as it closes in. It will also be interesting to see if the GFS holds this system with such decent parameters and if it will remain consistant. If so, then it appears that at least one more chase sits possible.